Lucas Fernando vs Maurício Rua
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-3-0Record27-14-1
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'1"
81.5"Reach76"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Refit Pro FightersTeamUniversidade da Luta
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1709
If they lose-16→ 1677
If they win+12→ 1703
If they lose-12→ 1679
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Lucas FernandoMaurício Rua
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Maurício Rua51%
Lucas Fernando 49%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Maurício Rua a 51% favorite over Lucas Fernando in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lucas Fernando's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1693 vs 1691), separated by just 2 points.
Lucas Fernando enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Maurício Rua enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Lucas Fernando finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Maurício Rua 81%.
Lucas Fernando carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.