Lucas Fernando vs Muhammed Lawal
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-3-0Record21-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'0"
81.5"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Refit Pro FightersTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1709
If they lose-16→ 1677
If they win+12→ 1706
If they lose-12→ 1682
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1662 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Lucas FernandoMuhammed Lawal
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Muhammed Lawal55%
Lucas Fernando 45%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Muhammed Lawal a 55% favorite over Lucas Fernando in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1693 vs 1694), separated by just 1 points.
Lucas Fernando enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Muhammed Lawal enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Lucas Fernando finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Muhammed Lawal 62%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.