Lucas Fernando vs Renato Sobral
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-3-0Record37-12-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'0"
81.5"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Refit Pro FightersTeamBabalu's Iron Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1703
If they lose-16→ 1671
If they win+12→ 1699
If they lose-12→ 1675
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1534 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1642 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lucas FernandoRenato Sobral
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Fernando87%
Renato Sobral 13%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Fernando a 87% favorite over Renato Sobral in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1687 vs 1687), separated by just 0 points.
Lucas Fernando enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Renato Sobral enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Lucas Fernando finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Renato Sobral 65%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.