Lucas Fernando vs Uran Satybaldiev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-3-0Record9-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
81.5"Reach79"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1703
If they lose-16→ 1671
If they win+16→ 1702
If they lose-16→ 1670
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1534 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lucas FernandoUran Satybaldiev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Fernando78%
Uran Satybaldiev 22%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Fernando a 78% favorite over Uran Satybaldiev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1687 vs 1686), separated by just 1 points.
Lucas Fernando enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Lucas Fernando finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Uran Satybaldiev 78%.
Lucas Fernando and Uran Satybaldiev share 1 common opponent: Leon Soares.
Lucas Fernando carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (1)
WinTKO (Leg Kick and Punches) · 2026
WinSubmission (Kimura) · 2025