Lucas Ganin vs Morgan Charrière
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Morgan Charrière60%
Lucas Ganin 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Morgan Charrière a 60% favorite over Lucas Ganin in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lucas Ganin's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1635 vs 1635), separated by just 0 points.
Lucas Ganin enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Morgan Charrière enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Lucas Ganin finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Morgan Charrière 76%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
9-3-0Record21-13-1
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'8"
-Reach69"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1651
If they lose-16→ 1619
If they win+12→ 1647
If they lose-12→ 1623
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1536 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1605 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Lucas GaninMorgan Charrière