Combat Edge Intelligence

Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-2-0Record8-4-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'2"Height5'5"
64"Reach65"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Renovacao Coari TeamTeamBroz Martial Arts

What's at stake

Lucas Rocha is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Stewart Nicoll carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Lucas RochaNow 1678
If they win+12→ 1690
If they lose-20→ 1658
Stewart NicollNow 1591
If they win+20→ 1611
If they lose-12→ 1579

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1532 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1568 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.09
Sig. strikes / min
3.63
50%
Strike accuracy
39%
3.67
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.84
56%
Strike defense
50%
1.64
Takedown avg.
1.63
75%
Takedown accuracy
4%
76%
Takedown defense
29%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Lucas RochaStewart Nicoll
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (56%)
KO/TKO
4 (50%)
4 (22%)
Submission
3 (38%)
4 (22%)
Decision
1 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Lucas Rocha70%
Stewart Nicoll 30%Elo baseline: 62%

The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Rocha a 70% favorite over Stewart Nicoll in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).

Lucas Rocha holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1678 to 1591, a 87-point edge.

Stewart Nicoll enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Lucas Rocha finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Stewart Nicoll 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.