Lucas Rocha vs Sumudaerji
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-2-0Record19-7-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'2"Height5'8"
64"Reach72"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Renovacao Coari TeamTeamEnbo Fight Club
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1694
If they lose-16→ 1662
If they win+12→ 1687
If they lose-12→ 1663
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1532 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1639 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lucas RochaSumudaerji
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sumudaerji51%
Lucas Rocha 49%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Sumudaerji a 51% favorite over Lucas Rocha in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lucas Rocha's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1678 vs 1675), separated by just 3 points.
Sumudaerji enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Lucas Rocha finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Sumudaerji 74%.
Sumudaerji carries a 8-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.