Combat Edge Intelligence

Luis Hernandez vs Marco Tulio Silva Costa

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-0-0Record11-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'10"Height6'1"
72"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Freedom FightersTeamTeam Paraiba

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Luis HernandezNow 1657
If they win+24→ 1681
If they lose-24→ 1633
Marco Tulio Silva CostaNow 1658
If they win+16→ 1674
If they lose-16→ 1642

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1495 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
4.42
TBD
Strike accuracy
51%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.78
TBD
Strike defense
58%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.33
TBD
Takedown accuracy
20%
TBD
Takedown defense
0%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.66

Trajectory

Luis HernandezMarco Tulio Silva Costa
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (43%)
KO/TKO
7 (64%)
4 (57%)
Submission
1 (9%)
0 (0%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Marco Tulio Silva Costa62%
Luis Hernandez 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Marco Tulio Silva Costa a 62% favorite over Luis Hernandez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1657 vs 1658), separated by just 1 points.

Luis Hernandez enters on a 7-fight win streak.

Luis Hernandez finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Marco Tulio Silva Costa 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.