Combat Edge Intelligence

Luke Fernandez vs Marcin Prachnio

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-1-0Record17-9-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'3"
76"Reach74"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Dante Rivera BJJTeamTatsujin Dojo

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Luke FernandezNow 1612
If they win+24→ 1636
If they lose-24→ 1588
Marcin PrachnioNow 1611
If they win+12→ 1623
If they lose-12→ 1599

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1525 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1635 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

32
Sig. strikes / min
5.57
100%
Strike accuracy
54%
0
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.24
100%
Strike defense
54%
0
Takedown avg.
0.15
TBD
Takedown accuracy
20%
0%
Takedown defense
54%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Luke FernandezMarcin Prachnio
155016001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (83%)
KO/TKO
11 (65%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (6%)
1 (17%)
Decision
5 (29%)

Combat Edge model read

Luke Fernandez71%
Marcin Prachnio 29%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Luke Fernandez a 71% favorite over Marcin Prachnio in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1612 vs 1611), separated by just 1 points.

Marcin Prachnio enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Luke Fernandez finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Marcin Prachnio 71%.

Luke Fernandez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.