Luke Fernandez vs Melvin Manhoef
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-1-0Record32-17-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height5'8"
76"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Dante Rivera BJJTeamMike's Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1636
If they lose-24→ 1588
If they win+12→ 1629
If they lose-12→ 1605
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1525 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1557 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Luke FernandezMelvin Manhoef
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luke Fernandez70%
Melvin Manhoef 30%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Luke Fernandez a 70% favorite over Melvin Manhoef in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Melvin Manhoef's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1612 vs 1617), separated by just 5 points.
Melvin Manhoef enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Luke Fernandez finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Melvin Manhoef 91%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.