Combat Edge Intelligence

Luke Fernandez vs Nick Roehrick

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-1-0Record9-2-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'3"
76"Reach41,0"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Dante Rivera BJJTeamElevation Fight Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Luke FernandezNow 1612
If they win+24→ 1636
If they lose-24→ 1588
Nick RoehrickNow 1618
If they win+16→ 1634
If they lose-16→ 1602

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1525 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

32
Sig. strikes / min
2.31
100%
Strike accuracy
18%
0
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.92
100%
Strike defense
44%
0
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
0%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Luke FernandezNick Roehrick
1550160016502020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (83%)
KO/TKO
2 (22%)
0 (0%)
Submission
2 (22%)
1 (17%)
Decision
5 (56%)

Combat Edge model read

Luke Fernandez66%
Nick Roehrick 34%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Luke Fernandez a 66% favorite over Nick Roehrick in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Nick Roehrick's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1612 vs 1618), separated by just 6 points.

Luke Fernandez finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Nick Roehrick 44%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.