Luke Fernandez vs Stephan Bonnar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-1-0Record15-9-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'3"
76"Reach79"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Dante Rivera BJJTeamOne Kick's Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1636
If they lose-24→ 1588
If they win+16→ 1629
If they lose-16→ 1597
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1525 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Luke FernandezStephan Bonnar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luke Fernandez70%
Stephan Bonnar 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Luke Fernandez a 70% favorite over Stephan Bonnar in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Stephan Bonnar's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1612 vs 1613), separated by just 1 points.
Stephan Bonnar enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Luke Fernandez finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Stephan Bonnar 67%.
Stephan Bonnar carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.