Luke Rockhold vs Lyoto Machida
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-6-0Record26-12-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height6'1"
77"Reach74"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Kickboxing AcademyTeamAPAM
What's at stake
Luke Rockhold is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Lyoto Machida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1755
If they lose-19→ 1723
If they win+14→ 1699
If they lose-10→ 1675
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1736 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1718 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Luke RockholdLyoto Machida
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luke Rockhold75%
Lyoto Machida 25%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Luke Rockhold a 75% favorite over Lyoto Machida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Luke Rockhold holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1742 to 1685, a 57-point edge.
Luke Rockhold enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Lyoto Machida enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Luke Rockhold finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Lyoto Machida 50%.
Luke Rockhold and Lyoto Machida share 1 common opponent: Yoel Romero.
Luke Rockhold carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.