Lupita Godinez vs Mackenzie Dern
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-6-0Record16-5-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'2"Height5'4"
61"Reach63"
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
Lobo Gym MMATeamRVCA
What's at stake
Mackenzie Dern is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Lupita Godinez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1686
If they lose-14→ 1654
If they win+14→ 1733
If they lose-18→ 1701
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1652 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1678 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lupita GodinezMackenzie Dern
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mackenzie Dern56%
Lupita Godinez 44%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Mackenzie Dern a 56% favorite over Lupita Godinez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Mackenzie Dern holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1719 to 1668, a 51-point edge.
Mackenzie Dern enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Lupita Godinez finishes 21% of wins inside the distance, Mackenzie Dern 50%.
Lupita Godinez and Mackenzie Dern share 3 common opponents: Jéssica Andrade, Virna Jandiroba and Angela Hill.
Mackenzie Dern carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.