Lupita Godinez vs Mackenzie Dern
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-6-0Record17-5-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'2"Height5'4"
61"Reach63"
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
Lobo Gym MMA· 1725 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamRVCA
What's at stake
Mackenzie Dern is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Lupita Godinez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1700
If they lose-14→ 1668
If they win+14→ 1749
If they lose-18→ 1717
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1657 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1690 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Lupita GodinezMackenzie Dern
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mackenzie Dern63%
Lupita Godinez 37%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Mackenzie Dern a 63% favorite over Lupita Godinez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Mackenzie Dern holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1735 to 1682, a 53-point edge.
Mackenzie Dern enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Lupita Godinez finishes 21% of wins inside the distance, Mackenzie Dern 47%.
Lupita Godinez and Mackenzie Dern share 2 common opponents: Jéssica Andrade and Virna Jandiroba.
Mackenzie Dern carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.