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Combat Edge Intelligence

Lyoto Machida vs Matěj Peňáz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

26-12-0Record11-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'3"
74"Reach83"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
APAMTeamReinders MMA· 1607 avg Elo · 5 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Lyoto MachidaNow 1683
If they win+12→ 1695
If they lose-12→ 1671
Matěj PeňázNow 1682
If they win+16→ 1698
If they lose-16→ 1666

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1718 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1506 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

2.59
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
53%
Strike accuracy
Not available
1.57
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
62%
Strike defense
Not available
1.21
Takedown avg.
Not available
65%
Takedown accuracy
Not available
76%
Takedown defense
Not available
0.40
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Lyoto MachidaMatěj Peňáz
165017002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (42%)
KO/TKO
10 (91%)
2 (8%)
Submission
0 (0%)
13 (50%)
Decision
1 (9%)

Combat Edge model read

Matěj Peňáz55%
Lyoto Machida 45%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Matěj Peňáz a 55% favorite over Lyoto Machida in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lyoto Machida's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1683 vs 1682), separated by just 1 points.

Lyoto Machida enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Matěj Peňáz enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Lyoto Machida finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Matěj Peňáz 91%.

Matěj Peňáz carries a 9-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.