Mackenzie Dern vs Nina Nunes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record11-7-0
StrawweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'5"
63"Reach64"
115 lbsWeight126 lbs
RVCATeamLioness Studio
What's at stake
Mackenzie Dern is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Nina Nunes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1729
If they lose-22→ 1697
If they win+22→ 1611
If they lose-10→ 1579
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1678 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1599 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Mackenzie DernNina Nunes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mackenzie Dern80%
Nina Nunes 20%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Mackenzie Dern a 80% favorite over Nina Nunes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Mackenzie Dern holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1719 to 1589, a 130-point edge.
Mackenzie Dern enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Mackenzie Dern finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Nina Nunes 55%.
Mackenzie Dern and Nina Nunes share 1 common opponent: Angela Hill.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.