Mackenzie Dern vs Tecia Pennington
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record15-8-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'1"
63"Reach60″
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
RVCATeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Mackenzie Dern is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Tecia Pennington carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1732
If they lose-19→ 1700
If they win+19→ 1677
If they lose-13→ 1645
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1678 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1662 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Mackenzie DernTecia Pennington
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mackenzie Dern73%
Tecia Pennington 27%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Mackenzie Dern a 73% favorite over Tecia Pennington in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Mackenzie Dern holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1719 to 1658, a 61-point edge.
Mackenzie Dern enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Mackenzie Dern finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Tecia Pennington 13%.
Mackenzie Dern and Tecia Pennington share 2 common opponents: Angela Hill and Marina Rodriguez.
Mackenzie Dern carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.