Mackenzie Dern vs Xiaonan Yan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record19-6-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'5"
63"Reach63"
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
RVCATeamTeam Alpha Male· 1646 avg Elo · 20 rated
What's at stake
Mackenzie Dern is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Xiaonan Yan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1750
If they lose-17→ 1718
If they win+17→ 1730
If they lose-15→ 1698
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1690 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1710 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Mackenzie DernXiaonan Yan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Xiaonan Yan57%
Mackenzie Dern 43%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Xiaonan Yan a 57% favorite over Mackenzie Dern in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mackenzie Dern's way (47%).
Mackenzie Dern holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1735 to 1713, a 22-point edge.
Mackenzie Dern enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Xiaonan Yan enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Mackenzie Dern finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Xiaonan Yan 47%.
Mackenzie Dern and Xiaonan Yan share 3 common opponents: Virna Jandiroba, Jéssica Andrade and Marina Rodriguez.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.