Magomed Ankalaev vs Paul Craig
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-2-1Record17-10-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height6'4"
75"Reach76"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Gorets Fight ClubTeamScottish Hit Squad
What's at stake
Magomed Ankalaev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Paul Craig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1844
If they lose-23→ 1812
If they win+18→ 1680
If they lose-6→ 1656
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1714 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Magomed AnkalaevPaul Craig
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Magomed Ankalaev88%
Paul Craig 12%Elo baseline: 73%
The Combat Edge model makes Magomed Ankalaev a 88% favorite over Paul Craig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).
Magomed Ankalaev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1835 to 1662, a 173-point edge.
Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Magomed Ankalaev finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Paul Craig 100%.
Magomed Ankalaev and Paul Craig share 3 common opponents: Johnny Walker, Volkan Oezdemir and Nikita Krylov.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.