Magomed Ankalaev vs Thiago Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-2-1Record22-13-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
75"Reach 76"
205 lbsWeight241 lbs
Gorets Fight ClubTeamTeam Marreta
What's at stake
Magomed Ankalaev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Thiago Santos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1845
If they lose-22→ 1813
If they win+17→ 1711
If they lose-7→ 1687
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1743 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Magomed AnkalaevThiago Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Magomed Ankalaev89%
Thiago Santos 11%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Magomed Ankalaev a 89% favorite over Thiago Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Magomed Ankalaev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1835 to 1694, a 141-point edge.
Thiago Santos enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Magomed Ankalaev finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.
Magomed Ankalaev and Thiago Santos share 3 common opponents: Aleksandar Rakić, Johnny Walker and Jan Błachowicz.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.