Combat Edge Intelligence

Mahamed Aly vs Shonte Barnes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-2-0Record6-2-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'0"
77"Reach41,5"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
One Way Martial ArtsTeamAmerican Top Team Asheville

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Mahamed AlyNow 1568
If they win+24→ 1592
If they lose-24→ 1544
Shonte BarnesNow 1567
If they win+24→ 1591
If they lose-24→ 1543

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1540 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1475 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.32
TBD
Strike accuracy
38%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.55
TBD
Strike defense
68%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
TBD
Takedown defense
60%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Mahamed AlyShonte Barnes
155016002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (80%)
KO/TKO
4 (67%)
0 (0%)
Submission
2 (33%)
1 (20%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Mahamed Aly66%
Shonte Barnes 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Mahamed Aly a 66% favorite over Shonte Barnes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1568 vs 1567), separated by just 1 points.

Mahamed Aly finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Shonte Barnes 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.