Combat Edge Intelligence

Mahamed Aly vs Vinicius Moreira

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-2-0Record12-8-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
77"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
One Way Martial ArtsTeamFive Rounds

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Mahamed AlyNow 1568
If they win+24→ 1592
If they lose-24→ 1544
Vinicius MoreiraNow 1566
If they win+16→ 1582
If they lose-16→ 1550

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1540 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1561 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.15
TBD
Strike accuracy
59%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.07
TBD
Strike defense
43%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.97
TBD
Takedown accuracy
19%
TBD
Takedown defense
0%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.31

Trajectory

Mahamed AlyVinicius Moreira
155016002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (80%)
KO/TKO
2 (17%)
0 (0%)
Submission
10 (83%)
1 (20%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Mahamed Aly62%
Vinicius Moreira 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Mahamed Aly a 62% favorite over Vinicius Moreira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1568 vs 1566), separated by just 2 points.

Mahamed Aly finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Vinicius Moreira 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.