Combat Edge Intelligence

Makwan Amirkhani vs Mike Grundy

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-11-0Record12-4-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'8"
72"Reach72"
156 lbsWeight145 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamTeam Kaobon Wigan

What's at stake

Mike Grundy is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Makwan Amirkhani carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Makwan AmirkhaniNow 1621
If they win+17→ 1638
If they lose-15→ 1606
Mike GrundyNow 1649
If they win+15→ 1664
If they lose-17→ 1632

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1612 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1555 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.33
Sig. strikes / min
2.09
44%
Strike accuracy
45%
2.98
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.45
46%
Strike defense
56%
3.96
Takedown avg.
4.06
15%
Takedown accuracy
28%
36%
Takedown defense
50%
1.05
Submission avg.
0.37

Trajectory

Makwan AmirkhaniMike Grundy
16001650170020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

1 (5%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
14 (70%)
Submission
8 (67%)
5 (25%)
Decision
3 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Mike Grundy53%
Makwan Amirkhani 47%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Mike Grundy a 53% favorite over Makwan Amirkhani in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Mike Grundy holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1649 to 1621, a 28-point edge.

Makwan Amirkhani enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Mike Grundy enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Makwan Amirkhani finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Mike Grundy 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.