Combat Edge Intelligence

Manoel Sousa vs Natan Schulte

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-1-0Record25-6-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
70"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Academia OctogonoTeamAmerican Top Team· avg 1721 Elo

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Manoel SousaNow 1754
If they win+16→ 1770
If they lose-16→ 1738
Natan SchulteNow 1761
If they win+12→ 1773
If they lose-12→ 1749

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1590 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1657 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.15
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
45%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.71
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
51%
Strike defense
TBD
0
Takedown avg.
TBD
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
60%
Takedown defense
TBD
1.65
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Manoel SousaNatan Schulte
17001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (60%)
KO/TKO
4 (16%)
3 (20%)
Submission
10 (40%)
3 (20%)
Decision
11 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Manoel Sousa71%
Natan Schulte 29%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Manoel Sousa a 71% favorite over Natan Schulte in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Natan Schulte's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1754 vs 1761), separated by just 7 points.

Manoel Sousa enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Manoel Sousa finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Natan Schulte 56%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.