Combat Edge Intelligence

Manoel Sousa vs Rafa García

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-1-0Record19-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
70"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Academia OctogonoTeamTeam Elevation

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Manoel SousaNow 1756
If they win+16→ 1772
If they lose-16→ 1740
Rafa GarcíaNow 1756
If they win+16→ 1772
If they lose-16→ 1740

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1596 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1679 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.15
Sig. strikes / min
4.28
45%
Strike accuracy
44%
3.71
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.42
51%
Strike defense
61%
0
Takedown avg.
3.22
0%
Takedown accuracy
17%
60%
Takedown defense
77%
1.65
Submission avg.
0.40

Trajectory

Manoel SousaRafa García
1700175020252026

Win method breakdown

9 (60%)
KO/TKO
2 (11%)
3 (20%)
Submission
8 (44%)
3 (20%)
Decision
8 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Manoel Sousa51%
Rafa García 49%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Manoel Sousa a 51% favorite over Rafa García in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1756 vs 1756), separated by just 0 points.

Manoel Sousa enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Rafa García enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Manoel Sousa finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Rafa García 56%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.