Manuel Exposito vs Nate Landwehr
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-5-0Record18-8-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'9"
69"Reach72"
150 lbsWeight145 lbs
Entram Gym· 1682 avg Elo · 11 ratedTeamMMA Masters
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623
If they win+16→ 1656
If they lose-16→ 1624
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1552 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1678 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Manuel ExpositoNate Landwehr
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Manuel Exposito77%
Nate Landwehr 23%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Manuel Exposito a 77% favorite over Nate Landwehr in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Nate Landwehr's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1639 vs 1640), separated by just 1 points.
Nate Landwehr enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Manuel Exposito finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Nate Landwehr 61%.
Nate Landwehr carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.