Manuel Exposito vs Tucker Lutz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-5-0Record12-4-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'8"
69"Reach72"
150 lbsWeight145 lbs
Entram Gym· 1678 avg Elo · 12 ratedTeamGround Control
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1661
If they lose-16→ 1629
If they win+16→ 1661
If they lose-16→ 1629
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1550 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1573 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Manuel ExpositoTucker Lutz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Manuel Exposito61%
Tucker Lutz 39%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Manuel Exposito a 61% favorite over Tucker Lutz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1645 vs 1645), separated by just 0 points.
Tucker Lutz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Manuel Exposito finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Tucker Lutz 67%.
Tucker Lutz carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.