Marc Diakiese vs Rafael Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-8-0Record21-12-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
73"Reach68"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Great Britain Top TeamTeamMain Street Boxing & Muay Thai
What's at stake
Marc Diakiese is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Rafael Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1652
If they lose-13→ 1628
If they win+17→ 1630
If they lose-15→ 1598
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1632 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1615 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Marc DiakieseRafael Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marc Diakiese62%
Rafael Alves 38%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Marc Diakiese a 62% favorite over Rafael Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Marc Diakiese holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1641 to 1613, a 28-point edge.
Rafael Alves enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Marc Diakiese finishes 39% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Alves 76%.
Marc Diakiese carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.