Marc Diakiese vs Rafael Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
18-9-0Record21-12-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
73"Reach68"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Great Britain Top TeamTeamMain Street Boxing & Muay Thai
What's at stake
Marc Diakiese is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Rafael Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1642
If they lose-13→ 1618
If they win+17→ 1630
If they lose-15→ 1598
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1637 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1615 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Marc DiakieseRafael Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marc Diakiese71%
Rafael Alves 29%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Marc Diakiese a 71% favorite over Rafael Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Marc Diakiese holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1631 to 1613, a 18-point edge.
Marc Diakiese enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Rafael Alves enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Marc Diakiese finishes 39% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Alves 76%.
Marc Diakiese carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.