Combat Edge Intelligence

Marcin Held vs Nasrat Haqparast

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-10-0Record18-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
39,5"Reach72"
156 lbsWeight156 lbs
Ankos MMATeamTristar Gym

What's at stake

Nasrat Haqparast is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Marcin Held carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Marcin HeldNow 1672
If they win+14→ 1686
If they lose-10→ 1662
Nasrat HaqparastNow 1728
If they win+10→ 1738
If they lose-14→ 1714

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1601 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1697 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.41
Sig. strikes / min
6.40
35%
Strike accuracy
45%
2.02
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.01
47%
Strike defense
63%
2.46
Takedown avg.
0.35
47%
Takedown accuracy
20%
38%
Takedown defense
85%
1.31
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Marcin HeldNasrat Haqparast
17001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (14%)
KO/TKO
10 (56%)
15 (52%)
Submission
0 (0%)
10 (34%)
Decision
8 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Nasrat Haqparast71%
Marcin Held 29%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Nasrat Haqparast a 71% favorite over Marcin Held in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Nasrat Haqparast holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1728 to 1672, a 56-point edge.

Marcin Held finishes 66% of wins inside the distance, Nasrat Haqparast 56%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.