Combat Edge Intelligence

Marcin Held vs Shamil Basaev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-10-0Record8-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
39,5"Reach71.3"
156 lbsWeight147 lbs
Ankos MMA· 1671 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamFight Club Akhmat· 1683 avg Elo · 20 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Marcin HeldNow 1679
If they win+12→ 1691
If they lose-12→ 1667
Shamil BasaevNow 1678
If they win+24→ 1702
If they lose-24→ 1654

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1621 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1520 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.41
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
35%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.02
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
47%
Strike defense
TBD
2.46
Takedown avg.
TBD
47%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
38%
Takedown defense
TBD
1.31
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Marcin HeldShamil Basaev
1550160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (14%)
KO/TKO
4 (50%)
15 (52%)
Submission
1 (13%)
10 (34%)
Decision
3 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Shamil Basaev60%
Marcin Held 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Shamil Basaev a 60% favorite over Marcin Held in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Marcin Held's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1679 vs 1678), separated by just 1 points.

Shamil Basaev enters on a 8-fight win streak.

Marcin Held finishes 66% of wins inside the distance, Shamil Basaev 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.