Marcin Held vs Valeriu Mircea
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-11-0Record32-9-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
39,5"ReachTBD
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
Ankos MMA· 1666 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeam
What's at stake
Marcin Held is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Valeriu Mircea carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1699
If they lose-13→ 1675
If they win+13→ 1686
If they lose-11→ 1662
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1634 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1588 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Marcin HeldValeriu Mircea
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcin Held54%
Valeriu Mircea 46%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcin Held a 54% favorite over Valeriu Mircea in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Marcin Held holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1688 to 1673, a 15-point edge.
Valeriu Mircea enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Marcin Held finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Valeriu Mircea 81%.
Marcin Held and Valeriu Mircea share 2 common opponents: Salahdine Parnasse and Roman Szymański.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (2)
WinDecision (Unanimous) · 2024
WinTKO (Punches) · 2026
WinDecision (Split) · 2023
LossTKO (Hand Injury) · 2022