Valeriu Mircea vs Marcin Held

Nov 21, 2026

Combat Edge model forecast46%Valeriu Mircea54%Marcin HeldFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 21, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueEnea Arena

BroadcastNetwork TBD

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 21, 2026.

US East (ET): Sat 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 5:00 AM
Your time

Valeriu MirceaThe Solitary Wolf |32-9-1Valeriu Mircea vs Marcin HeldMarcin Held31-11-0

Valeriu MirceaThe Solitary Wolf32-9-1

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

32-9-1Record31-11-0

33Age34

5'9"Height5'9"

TBDReach39,5"

155 lbsWeight156 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Marcin Held31-11-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Marcin Held owns a 15-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. 3 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Valeriu Mircea and Marcin Held across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Valeriu MirceaMarcin Held

Recent form

Valeriu MirceaW W L W W · +36 Elo last 5

WWLWW

Marcin HeldL W W W L · -1 Elo last 5

LWWWL

Elo edge

Valeriu Mircea1673+11 last move

Marcin Held1688-11 last move

Why they are ranked here

Valeriu Mircea#114 of 430 active Lightweight fighters · 1673 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Leo Brichta (rated 1678 at the time): +16.
Costliest loss: Lost to Roman Szymański (rated 1568 at the time): -23.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +36 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #113 Kenny Cross, 0 ahead of #115 Yamato Nishikawa.

Marcin Held#87 of 430 active Lightweight fighters · 1688 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Natan Schulte (rated 1757 at the time): +19.
Costliest loss: Lost to Raul Tutarauli (rated 1545 at the time): -20.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, -1 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #86 Miloš Janičić, 0 ahead of #88 Shamil Basaev.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

46%Valeriu Mircea54%Marcin Held

Model favoriteMarcin Held

Elo baseline52% for Marcin Held

Matchup adjustment+2 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Marcin HeldStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Marcin Held leads the full model at 54%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 1 point.

Current Elo ratings1673 · 1688Marcin Held leads by 15 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1588 · 1634Marcin Held faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth32 · 32 fightsThe published ratings use the same number of counted fights.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Valeriu MirceaNow 1673 · #114 Lightweight

Wins by decision+13→ 1686

Loses by decision-11→ 1662

Marcin HeldNow 1688 · #87 Lightweight

Wins by decision+11→ 1699

Loses by decision-13→ 1675

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Valeriu MirceavsMarcin Held

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Valeriu MirceaKO/TKO leads 41% of wins

Marcin Heldsubmission leads 52% of wins

Common opponents

Salahdine ParnasseValeriu Mircea: loss · KO (Head Kick and Punches) · Apr 6, 2024Marcin Held: loss · TKO (Punches) · Jan 17, 2026

Salahdine ParnasseValeriu Mircea: loss · KO (Head Kick and Punches) · Apr 6, 2024Marcin Held: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · May 10, 2025

Roman SzymańskiValeriu Mircea: win · TKO (Punches) · May 16, 2026Marcin Held: win · Decision (Unanimous) · Jun 7, 2024

Tale of the tape

Valeriu MirceaMarcin Held

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per min1.41

UFC lightweight average : 3.82

Not availableSig. strike accuracy35

UFC lightweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per min2.02

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

Not availableSig. strike defense47

UFC lightweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown average2.46

UFC lightweight average : 1.68

Not availableTakedown accuracy38

UFC lightweight average : 28%

Not availableTakedown defense38

UFC lightweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission average1.31

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

13Wins by knockout4

13Wins by submission16

6Wins by decision11

3Losses by knockout3

3Losses by submission1

3Losses by decision7

Valeriu Mircea vs Marcin Held is a scheduled Lightweight fight on KSW 123 : BARTOSINSKI VS LOPACZYK. Valeriu Mircea enters with a 32-9-1 record and Marcin Held enters with a 31-11-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.