Marco Polo Reyes vs Matt Frevola
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-9-0Record11-6-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
TBDReach71"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Entram GymTeamGracie Tampa South
What's at stake
Matt Frevola is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Marco Polo Reyes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1586
If they lose-13→ 1554
If they win+13→ 1650
If they lose-19→ 1618
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1596 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Marco Polo ReyesMatt Frevola
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Frevola70%
Marco Polo Reyes 30%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Frevola a 70% favorite over Marco Polo Reyes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Matt Frevola holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1637 to 1567, a 70-point edge.
Marco Polo Reyes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matt Frevola enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Marco Polo Reyes finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Matt Frevola 64%.
Marco Polo Reyes and Matt Frevola share 2 common opponents: Kyle Nelson and Drew Dober.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.