Marco Tulio vs Rafael Natal
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-3-0Record21-9-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'0"
74"Reach76,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamRenzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1688
If they lose-16→ 1656
If they win+12→ 1685
If they lose-12→ 1661
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1563 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1660 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Marco TulioRafael Natal
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marco Tulio71%
Rafael Natal 29%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Marco Tulio a 71% favorite over Rafael Natal in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rafael Natal's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1672 vs 1673), separated by just 1 points.
Marco Tulio enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Marco Tulio finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Natal 57%.
Rafael Natal carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.