Combat Edge Intelligence

Marco Tulio Silva Costa vs Rafael Natal

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-1-0Record21-9-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'0"
TBDReach76,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team ParaibaTeamRenzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Marco Tulio Silva CostaNow 1676
If they win+16→ 1692
If they lose-16→ 1660
Rafael NatalNow 1673
If they win+12→ 1685
If they lose-12→ 1661

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1660 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.42
Sig. strikes / min
3.10
51%
Strike accuracy
48%
2.78
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.48
58%
Strike defense
58%
1.33
Takedown avg.
2.55
20%
Takedown accuracy
34%
0%
Takedown defense
77%
0.66
Submission avg.
0.50

Trajectory

Marco Tulio Silva CostaRafael Natal
16501700201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (64%)
KO/TKO
4 (19%)
1 (9%)
Submission
8 (38%)
3 (27%)
Decision
9 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Marco Tulio Silva Costa71%
Rafael Natal 29%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Marco Tulio Silva Costa a 71% favorite over Rafael Natal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1676 vs 1673), separated by just 3 points.

Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Marco Tulio Silva Costa finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Natal 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.