Combat Edge Intelligence

Marco Tulio Silva Costa vs Rashad Evans

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-1-0Record20-8-1
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height5'11"
TBDReach75"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team ParaibaTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Marco Tulio Silva CostaNow 1676
If they win+16→ 1692
If they lose-16→ 1660
Rashad EvansNow 1674
If they win+12→ 1686
If they lose-12→ 1662

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1724 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.42
Sig. strikes / min
2.14
51%
Strike accuracy
38%
2.78
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.42
58%
Strike defense
63%
1.33
Takedown avg.
2.98
20%
Takedown accuracy
45%
0%
Takedown defense
74%
0.66
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Marco Tulio Silva CostaRashad Evans
165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (64%)
KO/TKO
8 (40%)
1 (9%)
Submission
1 (5%)
3 (27%)
Decision
11 (55%)

Combat Edge model read

Marco Tulio Silva Costa66%
Rashad Evans 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Marco Tulio Silva Costa a 66% favorite over Rashad Evans in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1676 vs 1674), separated by just 2 points.

Marco Tulio Silva Costa finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Rashad Evans 45%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.