Marcos Aurélio vs Samuel Sanches
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Samuel Sanches57%
Marcos Aurélio 43%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Samuel Sanches a 57% favorite over Marcos Aurélio in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Marcos Aurélio's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1661 vs 1661), separated by just 0 points.
Marcos Aurélio enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Marcos Aurélio finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Samuel Sanches 82%.
Samuel Sanches carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
10-1-0Record11-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
69"Reach74"
152 lbsWeight155 lbs
MutaruTeamGalpao da Luta· 1674 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1677
If they lose-16→ 1645
If they win+16→ 1677
If they lose-16→ 1645
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1506 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Marcos AurélioSamuel Sanches