Combat Edge Intelligence

Marina Rodriguez vs Talita Alencar

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-6-2Record8-1-1
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'7"Height5'1"
65"Reach58"
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
Thai BrasilTeamTemple Martial Arts

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Marina RodriguezNow 1675
If they win+16→ 1691
If they lose-16→ 1659
Talita AlencarNow 1668
If they win+16→ 1684
If they lose-16→ 1652

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1681 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.64
Sig. strikes / min
2.91
47%
Strike accuracy
38%
3.04
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.36
56%
Strike defense
56%
0.28
Takedown avg.
3.02
50%
Takedown accuracy
27%
63%
Takedown defense
67%
0.21
Submission avg.
0.60

Trajectory

Marina RodriguezTalita Alencar
1600165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (41%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
1 (6%)
Submission
4 (50%)
9 (53%)
Decision
4 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Talita Alencar63%
Marina Rodriguez 37%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Talita Alencar a 63% favorite over Marina Rodriguez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Marina Rodriguez's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1675 vs 1668), separated by just 7 points.

Marina Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Talita Alencar enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Marina Rodriguez finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Talita Alencar 50%.

Marina Rodriguez carries a 7-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.