Mario Bautista vs Patchy Mix
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-3-0Record20-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'8"
69"Reach71"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
MMA LabTeamWNY MMA
What's at stake
Mario Bautista is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Patchy Mix carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1805
If they lose-18→ 1773
If they win+14→ 1753
If they lose-10→ 1729
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1728 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1714 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Mario BautistaPatchy Mix
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mario Bautista60%
Patchy Mix 40%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Mario Bautista a 60% favorite over Patchy Mix in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Mario Bautista holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1791 to 1739, a 52-point edge.
Mario Bautista enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Patchy Mix enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Mario Bautista finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Patchy Mix 75%.
Patchy Mix carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.