Mario Gagliardi vs Sofiane El Fatni
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-0-0Record4-1-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
159 lbsWeight156 lbs
Team NaresuanTeam
What's at stake
Mario Gagliardi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Sofiane El Fatni carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1623
If they lose-25→ 1575
If they win+25→ 1610
If they lose-23→ 1562
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1508 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Mario GagliardiSofiane El Fatni
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sofiane El Fatni52%
Mario Gagliardi 48%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Sofiane El Fatni a 52% favorite over Mario Gagliardi in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mario Gagliardi's way (48%).
Mario Gagliardi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1600 to 1585, a 15-point edge.
Mario Gagliardi enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Mario Gagliardi finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Sofiane El Fatni 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.