Sofiane El Fatni vs Mario Gagliardi

Oct 31, 2026 · UFC Fight Pass

Combat Edge model forecast52%Sofiane El Fatni48%Mario GagliardiFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 31, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueZénith de Strasbourg

BroadcastUFC Fight Pass

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 31, 2026 — watch on UFC Fight Pass.

US East (ET): Sat 2:30 PM
US West (PT): Sat 11:30 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 6:30 PM
Central Europe: Sat 7:30 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 5:30 AM
Your time

Sofiane El Fatni4-1-0Sofiane El Fatni vs Mario GagliardiMario GagliardiThe Tank |4-0-0

Sofiane El Fatni4-1-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

4-1-0Record4-0-0

TBDAge26

6'1"Height5'8"

TBDReachTBD

156 lbsWeight159 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Mario GagliardiThe Tank4-0-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Mario Gagliardi owns a 15-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Sofiane El Fatni and Mario Gagliardi across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Sofiane El FatniMario Gagliardi

Recent form

Sofiane El FatniW L W W W · +85 Elo last 5

WLWWW

Mario GagliardiW W W W · +100 Elo last 4

WWWW

Elo edge

Sofiane El Fatni1585+29 last move

Mario Gagliardi1600+22 last move

Why they are ranked here

Sofiane El Fatni#289 of 443 active Lightweight fighters · 1585 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Maher Belkhadir (rated 1554 at the time): +29.
Costliest loss: Lost to Andrii Misiuk (rated 1616 at the time): -21.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +85 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #288 Geun Young Lee, 1 ahead of #290 Clay Guida.

Mario Gagliardi#204 of 376 active Welterweight fighters · 1600 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat José Mejia (rated 1500 at the time): +27.
Last 4 fights: 4 wins, 0 losses, +100 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #203 Khanbulat Irisbiev, 1 ahead of #205 Curtis Millender.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1508 Elo over the last 4 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

52%Sofiane El Fatni48%Mario Gagliardi

Model favoriteSofiane El Fatni

Elo baseline48% for Sofiane El Fatni

Matchup adjustment+4 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Sofiane El FatniStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Sofiane El Fatni is 52%, after Elo alone favored Mario Gagliardi at 52%.

Current Elo ratings1585 · 1600Mario Gagliardi leads by 15 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1529 · 1508Sofiane El Fatni faced the stronger recent schedule (5 vs 4 sampled fights).

Elo record depth5 · 4 fightsSofiane El Fatni has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Sofiane El FatniNow 1585 · #289 Lightweight

Wins by decision+25→ 1610

Loses by decision-23→ 1562

Mario GagliardiNow 1600 · #204 Welterweight

Wins by decision+23→ 1623

Loses by decision-25→ 1575

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Sofiane El FatnivsMario Gagliardi

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Sofiane El FatniKO/TKO leads 75% of wins

Mario GagliardiKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Sofiane El FatniMario Gagliardi

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.81

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 1.67

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 28%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 58%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 0.55

3Wins by knockout2

1Wins by submission1

0Wins by decision1

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

1Losses by decision0

Sofiane El Fatni vs Mario Gagliardi is a scheduled Lightweight fight on ARES FC 44 : YOUNOUSOV VS NAM. Sofiane El Fatni enters with a 4-1-0 record and Mario Gagliardi enters with a 4-0-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.