Marlon Moraes vs Merab Dvalishvili
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-13-1Record21-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'6"
67"Reach 68"
145 lbsWeight135 lbs
American Top TeamTeamSerra-Longo Fight Team
What's at stake
Merab Dvalishvili is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Marlon Moraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1671
If they lose-6→ 1647
If they win+6→ 1849
If they lose-18→ 1825
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1732 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1789 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Marlon MoraesMerab Dvalishvili
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Merab Dvalishvili88%
Marlon Moraes 12%Elo baseline: 75%
The Combat Edge model makes Merab Dvalishvili a 88% favorite over Marlon Moraes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (75%).
Merab Dvalishvili holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1843 to 1653, a 190-point edge.
Marlon Moraes enters on a 8-fight loss streak.
Marlon Moraes finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Merab Dvalishvili 24%.
Marlon Moraes and Merab Dvalishvili share 3 common opponents: Cory Sandhagen, José Aldo and Henry Cejudo.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.