Combat Edge Intelligence

Marlon Moraes vs Nathan Fletcher

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-13-1Record11-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'8"
67"Reach 70"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
American Top TeamTeamNext Generation MMA Liverpool

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Marlon MoraesNow 1653
If they win+12→ 1665
If they lose-12→ 1641
Nathan FletcherNow 1654
If they win+16→ 1670
If they lose-16→ 1638

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1732 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1549 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.37
Sig. strikes / min
3.41
41%
Strike accuracy
60%
4.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.16
54%
Strike defense
58%
0.87
Takedown avg.
3.37
42%
Takedown accuracy
31%
46%
Takedown defense
50%
0.35
Submission avg.
0.67

Trajectory

Marlon MoraesNathan Fletcher
165017001750202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (43%)
KO/TKO
2 (18%)
6 (26%)
Submission
7 (64%)
7 (30%)
Decision
2 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Nathan Fletcher71%
Marlon Moraes 29%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Nathan Fletcher a 71% favorite over Marlon Moraes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1653 vs 1654), separated by just 1 points.

Marlon Moraes enters on a 8-fight loss streak.

Nathan Fletcher enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Marlon Moraes finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Nathan Fletcher 82%.

Nathan Fletcher carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.