Marlon Vera vs Sean O'Malley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-12-1Record20-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'11"
70"Reach72″
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team Oyama· 1645 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
Sean O'Malley is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Marlon Vera carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1726
If they lose-8→ 1702
If they win+11→ 1826
If they lose-21→ 1794
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1749 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1750 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Marlon VeraSean O'Malley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sean O'Malley82%
Marlon Vera 18%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Sean O'Malley a 82% favorite over Marlon Vera in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Sean O'Malley holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1815 to 1710, a 105-point edge.
Marlon Vera enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Sean O'Malley enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Marlon Vera finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Sean O'Malley 70%.
Marlon Vera and Sean O'Malley share 1 common opponent: Aiemann Zahabi.
Sean O'Malley carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.