MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-1-1Record18-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
69"Reach74"
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Factory XTeamPedro Bessa BJJ
What's at stake
Mason Jones is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — MarQuel Mederos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1710
If they lose-14→ 1678
If they win+14→ 1759
If they lose-18→ 1727
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1568 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1606 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
MarQuel MederosMason Jones
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mason Jones56%
MarQuel Mederos 44%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Mason Jones a 56% favorite over MarQuel Mederos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Mason Jones holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1745 to 1692, a 53-point edge.
Mason Jones enters on a 7-fight win streak.
MarQuel Mederos finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Mason Jones 61%.
Mason Jones carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.