Marvin Vettori vs Paulo Costa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-10-1Record16-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
74"Reach72"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamTeam Borracha
What's at stake
Paulo Costa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Marvin Vettori carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1702
If they lose-10→ 1678
If they win+13→ 1767
If they lose-19→ 1735
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1753 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1747 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Marvin VettoriPaulo Costa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paulo Costa67%
Marvin Vettori 33%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Paulo Costa a 67% favorite over Marvin Vettori in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Paulo Costa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1754 to 1688, a 66-point edge.
Marvin Vettori enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Paulo Costa enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Marvin Vettori finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Paulo Costa 81%.
Marvin Vettori and Paulo Costa share 2 common opponents: Robert Whittaker and Israel Adesanya.
Marvin Vettori carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.