Mateus Soares vs Ryuho Miyaguchi
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Mateus Soares68%
Ryuho Miyaguchi 32%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Mateus Soares a 68% favorite over Ryuho Miyaguchi in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Mateus Soares holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1687 to 1596, a 91-point edge.
Mateus Soares enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Ryuho Miyaguchi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Mateus Soares finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Ryuho Miyaguchi 86%.
Ryuho Miyaguchi carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
12-2-0Record7-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'5"Height5'10"
66"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
What's at stake
Mateus Soares is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Ryuho Miyaguchi carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1699
If they lose-20→ 1667
If they win+30→ 1626
If they lose-18→ 1578
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1546 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Mateus SoaresRyuho Miyaguchi