Mateusz Gamrot vs Rafael dos Anjos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-4-0Record32-17-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
70"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamRDA Academy
What's at stake
Mateusz Gamrot is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Rafael dos Anjos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1832
If they lose-16→ 1808
If they win+16→ 1729
If they lose-8→ 1705
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1751 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1737 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Mateusz GamrotRafael dos Anjos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mateusz Gamrot88%
Rafael dos Anjos 12%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Mateusz Gamrot a 88% favorite over Rafael dos Anjos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Mateusz Gamrot holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1824 to 1713, a 111-point edge.
Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Mateusz Gamrot finishes 54% of wins inside the distance, Rafael dos Anjos 50%.
Mateusz Gamrot and Rafael dos Anjos share 1 common opponent: Rafael Fiziev.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.