Mateusz Rębecki vs Myktybek Orolbai
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-5-0Record16-2-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'10"
66"Reach74"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamUluu Kyrgyz
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1739
If they lose-12→ 1715
If they win+16→ 1746
If they lose-16→ 1714
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1682 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1622 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Mateusz RębeckiMyktybek Orolbai
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Myktybek Orolbai59%
Mateusz Rębecki 41%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Myktybek Orolbai a 59% favorite over Mateusz Rębecki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1727 vs 1730), separated by just 3 points.
Mateusz Rębecki enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Myktybek Orolbai enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Mateusz Rębecki finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Myktybek Orolbai 81%.
Myktybek Orolbai carries a 8-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.