Matheus Nicolau vs Tim Elliott
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-5-1Record21-14-1
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'7"
66"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamNext Generation Mixed Martial Arts
What's at stake
Matheus Nicolau is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Tim Elliott carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1677
If they lose-17→ 1645
If they win+13→ 1658
If they lose-11→ 1634
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1675 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matheus NicolauTim Elliott
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tim Elliott56%
Matheus Nicolau 44%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Tim Elliott a 56% favorite over Matheus Nicolau in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Matheus Nicolau's way (48%).
Matheus Nicolau holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1662 to 1645, a 17-point edge.
Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Matheus Nicolau finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Tim Elliott 52%.
Matheus Nicolau and Tim Elliott share 1 common opponent: Brandon Royval.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.