Matheus Nicolau vs Tim Elliott
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-5-1Record22-14-1
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'7"
66"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamNext Generation Mixed Martial Arts
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1679
If they lose-16→ 1647
If they win+12→ 1669
If they lose-12→ 1645
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1647 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1676 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Matheus NicolauTim Elliott
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matheus Nicolau53%
Tim Elliott 47%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Matheus Nicolau a 53% favorite over Tim Elliott in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1663 vs 1657), separated by just 6 points.
Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Matheus Nicolau finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Tim Elliott 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.